Climatologist Forecasts Summer Weather for Arkhangelsk Oblast After Harsh Winter

Even in winter, many northerners begin to wonder what summer will be like — hot or cool? To find out, the editorial staff of 76.RU turned to climatologist Vladimir Klimenko. He detailed what the weather will be like in summer 2026 in Russia.

What Summer Will Be Like

The preliminary picture of summer in the European part of Russia looks fairly ordinary. According to Vladimir Klimenko, over most of the territory, temperature anomalies will be about one degree above normal.

Climate norms change over time. Currently, the effective norm worldwide, including Russia, is the 1991–2020 period, from which all calculations are made.

“In 2025, the average June temperature in Moscow was 16.8°C (62.2°F) with a norm of 17.3°C (63.1°F), and July — 21.6°C (70.9°F) with a norm of 19.6°C (67.3°F), which can be characterized as a very hot month. August, however, was almost within the norm — 17.2°C (63.0°F) with an average value of 17.6°C (63.7°F). As a result, summer turned out moderately warm with a seasonal average anomaly of about one degree above normal. We expect approximately the same picture in the upcoming season,” the expert clarified.

Forecasted summer temperature anomalies, according to Vladimir Klimenko, increase in the north of the country — in Arkhangelsk Oblast, Karelia, on the Kola Peninsula, in the European part closer to the Urals, as well as in the Southern Federal District. In the North Caucasus, deviations can reach 1–1.5°C (1.8–2.7°F).

“Last summer was exactly one degree above normal, that is, a quite normal warm summer. Despite complaints about a cold June, it was almost within the norm, and July, as has often happened in recent years, turned out hot,” the climatologist noted.

Over most of the European territory of Russia, the current forecast maintains the following trend: the magnitude of forecast anomalies increases with advancement to the north and east. In the Asian part of the country, expected anomalies in some places multiply, promising the emergence of situations that can be considered extreme.

“There, summer over most of the territory, especially in the north of the Siberian Federal District, is expected to be very hot, with anomalies up to 4°C (7.2°F). In these areas, upcoming summer will break records not only for daily averages but also for monthly averages, which is much more important from the perspective of recording climate changes,” the expert explained.

With advancement to the south, the magnitude of anomalies decreases, but nevertheless remains positive everywhere. Klimenko emphasized that with anomalies of 3–4°C (5.4–7.2°F), the danger of forest fires sharply increases, from which it is impossible to fully protect.

According to the forecast, in the Arctic region, the average temperature of the warmest month will be 10–14°C (50–57.2°F) instead of the usual 6–10°C (42.8–50°F), and on the northernmost islands, for example, on Franz Josef Land or other Arctic islands, it will significantly exceed the usual zero mark for these latitudes. In more southern cities, such as Tomsk or Krasnoyarsk, summer temperatures will be higher than in Moscow, and with the addition of anomalies of 2–3°C (3.6–5.4°F), summer will turn out truly hot. The absolute peak of anomalies (more than 4°C or 7.2°F) is expected in the north of Yakutia and Chukotka — here summer temperature may be 10–12°C (50–53.6°F) instead of the usual 6–8°C (42.8–46.4°F).

Precipitation and Drought Risk

According to climatologist Vladimir Klimenko, regarding precipitation, summer will be close to normal, but distribution by month will be contrasting.

“Today«s forecast variant paints a picture of a moderately wet June with a sharply dry July, especially in the southern regions of the European territory of the country. Currently, the greatest danger is the July drought, which creates risks for agriculture and energy,” he explained.

Intense heat and low precipitation worsen the situation for agriculture, and the load on energy systems increases accordingly.

Should We Expect Heat Waves

Vladimir Klimenko noted that if the forecast for average temperature is confirmed, then prolonged heat waves should not be expected in the European part of Russia.

“Last summer, heat bursts in Central Russia with a similar expected average temperature were short-lived and rare and occurred mainly in early July. However, in the north of Siberia and the Far East, the situation in summer 2026 looks alarming — there high temperature anomalies create a real danger of forest, steppe, and tundra fires,” Vladimir Klimenko emphasized.