Climatologist Forecasts Russia's Summer 2026 Weather
Climatologist Vladimir Klimenko provided a detailed seasonal forecast for Russia.
Even in winter, many begin to wonder what the summer will be like—hot or cool? To find out, the editorial board of 76.RU turned to climatologist Vladimir Klimenko. He explained in detail what the weather will be like in Russia in the summer of 2026.
A chart shows the change in average monthly air temperature in Yaroslavl over two centuries.
What Will the Summer Be Like
The preliminary picture of summer in the European part of Russia looks fairly ordinary. According to Vladimir Klimenko, in most of the territory, temperature anomalies will be about one degree above normal.
Climate norms change over time. Currently, the current norm worldwide, including Russia, is the 1991–2020 interval, from which all calculations are made.
«In 2025, the average temperature in Moscow in June was 16.8°C (62°F) against a norm of 17.3°C (63°F), and in July it was 21.6°C (71°F) against a norm of 19.6°C (67°F), which can be characterized as a very hot month. August, however, was almost within the norm—17.2°C (63°F) against an average of 17.6°C (64°F). As a result, the summer turned out to be moderately warm with an average seasonal anomaly of about one degree above normal. We expect approximately the same picture in the upcoming season,» the expert clarified.
According to Vladimir Klimenko, the predicted anomalies in summer temperature increase in the north of the country—in Arkhangelsk Oblast, Karelia, the Kola Peninsula, in the European part closer to the Urals, as well as in the Southern Federal District. In the North Caucasus, deviations can reach 1–1.5°C.
«Last summer was exactly one degree above normal, which is a perfectly normal warm summer. Despite complaints about a cold June, it was almost within the norm, and July, as has often happened in recent years, turned out to be hot,» the climatologist noted.
In the current forecast for most of the European territory of Russia, the following trend remains: the magnitude of forecast anomalies increases as one moves north and east. In the Asian part of the country, the expected anomalies in some places increase multiple times, promising the emergence of situations that can be considered extreme.
«There, summer in most of the territory, especially in the north of the Siberian Federal District, is expected to be very hot, with anomalies of up to 4°C (7°F). In these areas, this coming summer will break records not only for average daily but also for average monthly temperatures, which is much more important from the point of view of recording climate change,» the expert explained.
As one moves south, the magnitude of the anomalies decreases, but nevertheless remains positive everywhere. Klimenko emphasized that with anomalies of 3–4°C (5–7°F), the danger of forest fires increases sharply, which cannot be completely avoided.
According to the forecast, in the Arctic region, the average temperature of the warmest month will be 10–14°C (50–57°F) instead of the usual 6–10°C (43–50°F), and on the northernmost islands, for example, Franz Josef Land or other Arctic islands, it will noticeably exceed the usual zero mark for these latitudes. In more southern cities, such as Tomsk or Krasnoyarsk, the summer temperature will be higher than in Moscow, and with the addition of anomalies of 2–3°C (4–5°F), the summer will turn out to be really hot. The absolute peak of anomalies (more than 4°C (7°F)) is expected in the north of Yakutia and Chukotka—here the summer temperature may be 10–12°C (50–54°F) instead of the usual 6–8°C (43–46°F).
Precipitation and Drought Risk
According to climatologist Vladimir Klimenko, as for precipitation, the summer will be close to normal, but the distribution by month will be contrasting.
«The current version of the forecast paints a picture of a moderately wet June with a sharply dry July, especially in the southern regions of the European part of the country. To date, the greatest danger is the July drought, which creates risks for agriculture and energy,» he explained.
Intense heat and low precipitation worsen the situation for agriculture, and the load on energy systems increases.
Should We Expect Heat Waves
Vladimir Klimenko noted that if the forecast for average temperature comes true, then prolonged heat waves should not be expected in the European part of Russia.
«Last summer, heat spikes in Central Russia with a similar expected average temperature were short-lived and rare and occurred mainly in early July. However, in the north of Siberia and the Far East, the situation in the summer of 2026 looks alarming—there, high temperature anomalies create a real danger of forest, steppe, and tundra fires,» emphasized Vladimir Klimenko.
