Forecast: Barnaul new build prices rising in 2026
Real estate market analysts agree: in 2026, prices for new construction in Barnaul will continue to rise. However, how significant this increase will be and how it will affect housing affordability depends on a whole range of factors. Representatives from the construction industry and realtors shared their forecasts with NGS22.RU.
Further Growth
— Construction costs are steadily rising. Building materials, labor wages, rental of special equipment, and other associated expenses are becoming more expensive. Instead of directly reducing prices, developers will likely offer other forms of support for buyers. These could be various installment programs, special promotions, or preferential offers, — says real estate specialist Olga Ismailova.
She notes that such trends are already being observed, and in the near future, they will become even more pronounced.
— Currently, all attention is focused on February 1 and the changes in the family mortgage program. It is after this date that more accurate forecasts for the new construction market can be made. But one thing can be said with certainty: prices for primary housing will not decrease. We have already spoken with developers, and all of them unanimously predict further price increases for apartments, — Ismailova said.
Sergey Bastrykin, another market expert, also does not expect a price drop. He points to a reduction in new construction volumes and tightening mortgage conditions. Moreover, in Barnaul, where he works, there is a shortage of construction sites, which also contributes to price growth.
«It»s More Than Waiting for a Miracle«
According to Karina Rasulova, head of the «Komfort Rielt» real estate agency, the real estate market is showing a steady upward trend, and recent changes in developers« pricing policies only confirm this forecast.
— Waiting for a price drop on new construction in 2026 is already more than waiting for a miracle, — Rasulova is sure.
She also noted that this year, several developers have already revised their prices upward.
A representative from one of the construction companies explained that for projects with a high degree of readiness, price increases will be due to the developer«s expenses for commissioning, since the cost of these projects has already been formed.
— As for objects whose construction is just beginning, their cost will be formed based on the calculated cost, with most contractors already announcing price increases for work and materials,
What Will Change in the Family Mortgage?
Realtor Elena Demakova points out that one of the main drivers of new construction cost increases could be changes in the family mortgage, which will come into effect on February 1, 2026. Currently, the family mortgage is provided to families with at least one child up to 6 years old (inclusive) or a disabled child under 18, as well as families with two children under 18. The purpose of the loan is to purchase an apartment on the primary market from a legal entity — both finished housing and under construction.
— The main principle of processing the family mortgage will be tied to the region of registration. This is done to support regional real estate markets, — clarified the real estate market expert.
The new rate model will depend on the number of children. It is important to note that this is currently a project of the Ministry of Finance and the State Duma, which is under discussion. In the future, the interest rate may look like this:
Families with one child — 12%
With two children — 6%
For families with three or more children — 4%
Other changes are also expected. For example, from February 1, a family will have access to only one preferential mortgage loan. Spouses will be required to act as co-borrowers; it will not be possible to take two separate mortgages for husband and wife. Family mortgage for secondary housing will be available to families with disabled children or one child, but only in small cities (up to 100,000 residents). Demakova added that currently, mortgage approval is happening in the Altai Krai.
— The increase in the down payment to 30% is already in effect in some banks. Now, only official «white» income is considered. For individual entrepreneurs — data from declarations and accounting books, not their own certificates. Control over the debt burden ratio is being strengthened. Access to Gosuslugi data will be carried out through client consent. Getting a mortgage with «gray» salary or high current debt burden will be almost impossible, — specifies the realtor.
