Analysts Raise Russia's 2026 Inflation Forecast to 5.3%

Analysts have revised their inflation expectations for Russia in 2026 upward — to 5.3% from 5.1% expected in December. This is according to the results of a new Bank of Russia survey conducted from January 30 to February 3.

The 2026 GDP growth forecast remains at 1.1%. For comparison, analysts had expected economic growth of 0.9% in 2025. The estimate for the average key rate in 2026 also remains unchanged at 14.1% (in 2025 — 19.2%).

For 2027, experts slightly raised the inflation forecast to 4.1% from 4%. At the same time, expectations for the average key rate rose to 10.4% from 10.3%, while the GDP growth forecast remained at 1.7%.

Forecasts for 2028 are generally stable: inflation is expected at 4.0%, GDP growth at 1.8%. Analysts slightly raised the estimate for the average key rate — to 9% from 8.9%. The neutral key rate, in their view, remains at 8%.

At the same time, survey participants improved their expectations for the ruble exchange rate in the medium term. The average annual dollar exchange rate in 2026 is forecast at 85 rubles, compared to the previously expected 90.3 rubles. In 2027, analysts estimate the dollar will average 94.5 rubles (previously 97.6 rubles), and in 2028 — 98.9 rubles versus the previous forecast of 102 rubles.

Meanwhile, expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes were lowered. For 2026, analysts expect a price of $50 per barrel instead of $54, for 2027 — $56 versus $57. The forecast for 2028 remains at $60 per barrel.