Russia Bets on Indian and Central Asian Migrant Labor

In 2025, Russia issued a record number of work permits in the past nine years to citizens of India and Bangladesh, according to Interior Ministry statistics. Specifically, 56.5 thousand Indian citizens were invited for work in Russia, up from 36.2 thousand a year earlier. From Bangladesh, 9.3 thousand workers came to the country, compared to 2.8 thousand in 2024. Both figures are the highest at least since 2017.

The increase also affected other countries. The number of work permits for citizens of Turkmenistan more than doubled to 25 thousand, and for citizens of Uzbekistan, it increased fivefold to 2.3 thousand. The number of Chinese citizens receiving work permits in Russia also grew by about 50% to 92 thousand.

In total, in 2025, the number of work permits issued to foreigners reached 240 thousand, also setting an absolute record since 2017. Over the year, the figure grew by almost 42%.

Against this backdrop, the government has already announced further expansion of attracting foreign labor. In 2026, the quota for labor migrants from India, China, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and African countries could reach 279 thousand people — 20% more than in the current year. The Ministry of Labor explained that 92% of the quota will be for skilled workers for industrial enterprises and infrastructure projects.

Here is how analysts interviewed by our Moscow colleagues from MSK1.RU — Olga Chudnovskikh from Moscow State University (MSU) and Yulia Levina from “Labor Market Experts” — assess the situation.

“There Aren«t Enough of Our Own Workers”

— How do you think, can we already talk about a sharp increase in labor migration from India in the coming years?

— Honestly, all this is still at the level of talk for now. I wouldn«t speak of any significant growth. In 2024, Indian citizens received about 56 thousand work permits. These are completely different scales compared to, for example, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, from where almost two million people came and obtained patents, says Olga Chudnovskikh, head of the laboratory of population economics and demography at the economic faculty of Moscow State University.

These are different orders of magnitude. And I don«t really understand why we»re talking about replacing migrants from Central Asia. Migration trajectories are already established there, there are jobs, people more or less speak the language. What is the overarching goal here — to replace historically close migration flows with migrants from India, whom we know mainly from movies?

Moreover, Deputy Prime Minister Manturov even spoke about the possibility of accepting a million people from India. Here, my imagination simply refuses to comprehend this.

— Why? Isn«t it possible to replace labor migrants from visa-free Central Asian countries in the coming years?

— It«s impossible to talk about that yet. Beyond agreements, no infrastructure has been created. For the current year, it»s planned to accept about 70 thousand people from India, but against the backdrop of one and a half million migrants from Uzbekistan and almost a million from Tajikistan, this is a drop in the ocean.

In the coming years, in my opinion, this is not on the agenda at all. Only if special resources are thrown in to artificially form this flow. But it still needs to be created. India has a large population, but organizing visa-based hiring for specific employers is not as simple as it seems.

It«s easy to say this, easy to sign an agreement. We have many such agreements, and most of them remain framework agreements. Perhaps over time, this will manifest itself somehow, but for now, I view what»s happening as statements of intent.

— Well, what in general will happen with the labor market in Russia in the coming years, considering the government«s plans to more actively attract migrants not only from India but also other exotic countries — from Myanmar to North Korea?

— Nothing will change globally. Only if they start artificially breaking the established system and building a new one with different participants. And this requires large resources, which, in my opinion, are not available now.

The most logical thing is to talk not about replacement, but about supplementing labor migrants. At the same time, the proportions will most likely be preserved and will change very slowly.

And with all this, we still have a high need for foreign labor. No matter what people with xenophobic views say, there aren«t enough of our own workers. Increasing labor productivity doesn»t work quickly — this is evident even in more developed countries, which still import foreign labor.

“I Don«t See an Economy That Needs Millions of Workers”

— How do you assess plans to expand migration from, let«s say, very distant abroad, which for Russia includes India?

— Looking at the state of our economy and the rare news of its growth, I don«t see such an economic layer that would require millions of newcomers. The coal industry is shrinking, we»re selling less and less oil, small business is hanging by a thread given the taxation, reflects Yulia Levina, member of the non-profit partnership “Labor Market Experts”. — According to official data, economic growth is expected to be about 1.3% per year. This is not giant growth that absorbs labor resources in huge volumes. If we continue to bet on cheap unskilled labor, and not on technological development, nothing good will come in the future.

Even China, with a population of 1.4 billion, is actively robotizing and automating. And we«re discussing importing labor. What»s the logic?!

— And indeed, what is it? Officials, apparently, simply want to replace migrants from India and other countries with migrants from Central Asia?

— They won«t replace for one simple reason. The new labor migrants are not Russian-speaking. Migrants from Central Asia mostly speak Russian. Therefore, Indian workers can only be brought in pinpointedly — for example, to specific enterprises.

But the question arises: why bring people if our own production facilities are closing? I, for example, have seen reports from Ivanovo, where sewing workshops are closing due to competition with China. Then why bring workers here?

In general, for me, this looks like a rather strange story. I don«t think Indian migrants can seriously replace those from Central Asia. The language barrier is too strong.

— You mentioned that migrants should be brought in pinpointedly to specific enterprises. Do you think this is the optimal format?

— Yes, only organized recruitment. An enterprise brought in people — from any country — they worked their contract and went back at the employer«s expense. Without the possibility to stay. There are examples — the same Malta, where the entire economy is built on temporary migration, but obtaining citizenship is practically impossible. This is a conscious choice.

The entire island lives on migration. In summer, students, tourists, workers, in winter everyone leaves. But obtaining citizenship is impossible. First, they are few, and second, there is something valuable inside the nation that must be preserved. Some kind of selfhood.

It«s enough to look at Europe»s experience: where people come from, how they assimilate, and what happens when there are too many of them. They don«t assimilate — they start to assimilate the indigenous population. I wouldn»t want us to come to the same result.