Don't Expect Wage Growth, but Do Expect Layoffs: The 2026 Labor Market

Wages for Russians in 2026 will either not grow at all or only minimally, by literally 2.5–3%. In addition, a wave of layoffs will continue in the country. We examine how the labor market will change in the coming year.

What will happen to wages

Mass wage growth should not be expected this year. Real income increases will only affect certain categories of workers. First and foremost, this will concern public sector employees and workers in those sectors where employers are competing for personnel due to shortages, especially among blue-collar professions.

“For example, welders. They are needed in many industries and will go work where they are offered more money. Employers have to monitor what competitors are offering and try to match them,” noted Alexander Safonov, an expert at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE), in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda.

This trend will continue throughout this year. According to Safonov, inflation is now the main factor influencing wage indexation. He suggests that minimum wage growth in 2026 will be the same as the inflation rate.

As noted by Maria Ignatova, Head of Research at hh.ru, wage growth this year will be more targeted than last year and will primarily affect highly qualified specialists in shortage areas. Those who can work with computers and the internet, know how to use artificial intelligence, software, various devices, and information processing will be able to earn more this year.

However, that alone is not enough, Ignatova believes. It is also important to be flexible, able to think critically, and constantly learn new things.

Who will face layoffs and who will get raises

Not only will it be harder to find a job, but also to keep one«s current position. According to HR expert and career consultant Galina Bobkova, staff reductions may not be as large-scale as last year, but quiet optimization will continue. All this is possible against the backdrop of:

• business owners« desire to reduce costs amid slowing economic growth in the country;

• excessive hiring in previous years, when employees were taken on for future projects or to not miss a valuable specialist;

• the need to find funds to raise wages for key employees who need to be retained from fleeing to competitors;

• automation of work processes and shifting some tasks to artificial intelligence.

Bank employees, copywriters, layout designers, marketers, analysts, HR specialists, and accountants may fall under the wave of layoffs. Such employees will be displaced against the backdrop of developing technologies by companies that have the funds for automation and the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI).

Already today, robots are replacing workers with simple and repetitive tasks, high salaries, but without unique skills. According to experts, high demand this year will be for specialists and managers who bring quick results.

“Such candidates are selected mainly by recommendations, on a targeted basis. As a result, for white-collar workers, the job search will become more complicated and prolonged. Many of them will have to accept that significantly increasing income by moving to another employer will no longer be possible,” warns Bobkova.

The most in-demand will be engineers and highly qualified workers. Among them:

• specialists servicing machines, equipment, and robots;

• chemists and technologists in the defense industry, biotechnology, and pharmaceuticals;

• experienced IT specialists who work with AI, system architecture, robotics;

• full-stack developers, data experts, and especially cybersecurity specialists.

Main labor market trends

Shift towards an ‘employer’s market’

The labor market is becoming more selective and conscious. Companies are abandoning uncontrolled wage growth and focusing on targeted income increases for key workers. The grounds for salary raises are the strategic importance of the employee to the business, the presence of rare professional skills, and a shortage of such specialists on the market.

Increased demand for real skills

Modern employers place great importance on results, the level of professional competencies, and the ability to cope with difficult tasks.

Focus on retention and development of personnel

In conditions of economic instability, companies prefer to develop internal resources, train employees, and redistribute assets, instead of actively attracting new workers.