"Problems Will Arise": Greenland Annexation Impact on Russian Arctic

The whole world is discussing US President Donald Trump«s plans to annex Greenland. The topic may seem far from Russians, but in reality the consequences could affect the Arctic part of Arkhangelsk region and ordinary citizens. Economist Alexander Vorotnikov told our Arkhangelsk colleagues from 29.RU how the possible annexation of Greenland to the US could affect the region and the country as a whole.

Alexander Vorotnikov is an Associate Professor at the Department of Public Administration and Public Policy of the Institute of Social Sciences of RANEPA (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration), and coordinator of the Expert Council of the Expert Center POR (Proektnyy Ofis Razvitiya Arktiki, Project Office for Arctic Development).

Vorotnikov is confident: such a scenario has both positive and negative consequences.

«Problems in case of Greenland»s annexation to the States will certainly arise. The island is in close proximity to the Northern Sea Route (NSR), and therefore not far from the Arkhangelsk region,« explains Vorotnikov. »The Arctic property of the region is linked to the NSR. If Greenland is hypothetically annexed to the US, understanding Trump«s rhetoric, his, let»s say, not always adequate actions, this will cause certain problems. Including those that may require high expenditures to strengthen defense capabilities precisely in the Arctic zone.«

According to Alexander Vorotnikov, in the event of threats, Arkhangelsk region will participate in ensuring the safety of navigation along the NSR and port operations, as well as protection against possible aggressive actions. Threats may also be economic.

There are many Arctic projects being implemented in Arkhangelsk region, including with the participation of foreign investors. The most important one at the moment is the development of the seaport and its deep-water section. China, with which the region actively cooperates, is involved in the project.

Another role of the region in the Arctic, which according to Vorotnikov will be sharply strengthened, is related to the construction and repair of ships. Arkhangelsk region is a powerful shipbuilding region.

«Projects currently being implemented in the Arkhangelsk region need to be developed with an understanding of which country owns Greenland,» the economist believes.

According to Vorotnikov, if Greenland is annexed to the US, in addition to obvious military-political confrontation, competition in the Arctic will increase.

«This is a stage of development: more active work will begin, new competencies will be used to compete for resources and opportunities,» the economist notes positive consequences.

In addition, in a favorable scenario, cooperation between Russia and the US could lead to joint economic and scientific projects, including with specialists in the Arkhangelsk region. But at the same time, according to Vorotnikov, active US activity in Greenland could negatively affect the Arctic ecology.