Houthis impose blockade on Saudi coast

The Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) announced the start of a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. According to their statement, this is a response to the ongoing, in their view, blockade of Yemen and restrictions on air travel. Experts are divided: some consider it an independent Saudi-Yemeni escalation, others see it as part of a broader US-Iran confrontation.

What the Houthis announced

Expert of the Russian International Affairs Council Kirill Semyonov described the situation as a confrontation between Houthi Yemen and Saudi Arabia. He stressed that one cannot speak of a unified front of all Yemen: the internationally recognized government is effectively backed by Riyadh. Furthermore, there is a split among the Houthis themselves due to inter-clan contradictions.

Background: The beginning of the war

Saudi Arabia launched a military operation in Yemen in 2015, trying to restore influence and protect its borders. The campaign dragged on, and only in 2023 did the sides begin discussing a truce. On July 13, 2026, Riyadh struck Sanaa airport before the landing of an Iranian plane and blocked it. The Houthis regarded this as a cessation of the ceasefire regime, accusing the Saudis of disrupting humanitarian flights. In response, they began shelling and threatened a blockade. Politician from the Omani office of the organization Mohammed al-Bukhaithi welcomed the announcement of the launch of Royal Jordanian flights to Sanaa on July 17, but demanded a complete unblocking of the airport and removal of restrictions on navigation. After that, a representative of the armed formations, Yahya Saree, announced the immediate start of a naval blockade of Saudi coasts.

Reasons for the new tensions

Semyonov explained that the Houthis present their threat as «siege for a siege.» In his address, Saree recalled the twelve-year blockade of Yemen, accusing Riyadh of suffocating the economy and a humanitarian catastrophe. The Houthis declared general mobilization and began forming volunteer units. According to the expert, this is no longer an emotional outburst but a formalized political signal of readiness for a symmetrical response.

Threats to oil infrastructure

Saudi Arabia is vulnerable if the blockade drags on, Semyonov believes. The kingdom«s oil is exported through Red Sea ports. Strikes on the port of Yanbu would become a serious problem: the Saudis bypass the Strait of Hormuz by pumping oil eastward and then to Red Sea ports. «To stop its transportation, it is not necessary to block Bab el-Mandeb,» the expert noted. Analyst Igor Yushkov of the National Energy Security Fund agrees that blocking the strait is not necessary. Attacks on the port of Yanbu may be more significant for the market. «It can be bypassed around the Cape of Good Hope,» Yushkov explained. «Yes, it is a more costly route, but it is an alternative. But what if the Houthis shell the port on the Red Sea, where the East-West oil pipeline from the main fields has been laid precisely to bypass the Strait of Hormuz?» The Saudis have pushed the pipeline to capacity up to 7 million barrels per day. If the Houthis block the port by striking infrastructure or attacking tankers, insurance companies will not allow vessels to enter the danger zone. Yushkov recalled that at the beginning of the current round of US-Iran confrontation, Saudi Arabia was not using the pipeline at full capacity. In April, Iran tried to shell it and disrupt shipping, then shipments briefly stopped. The Houthis, according to the expert, find it more convenient to shell from the south, where Saudi Arabia»s defenses are weaker. The worst-case scenario could drive oil prices to $100–120 per barrel and higher.

Prospects for negotiations

Much depends on negotiations between the Saudis and the Houthis, Semyonov noted. The UAE and Jordan have joined them. Theoretically, a compromise is possible. At the same time, Semyonov does not consider the announcement of the blockade a step in support of Iran: the Houthis act independently, like Hamas, and do not receive direct orders from Tehran. The growing tension draws both Yemen and Saudi Arabia into the vortex of conflict. Semyonov allows that the peak of escalation may become a prelude to a compromise: «In geopolitics, as history shows, the peak of escalation often becomes a prelude to a long-awaited compromise. It is quite possible that this tough «symmetrical» response will ultimately push all sides toward a comprehensive peace agreement. Regional mediators and the UN continue active work, and there remains hope that the current crisis will become not a point of no return but the last, most difficult step before the signing of a final agreement.» Yushkov is skeptical. He believes this is not just a Yemeni-Saudi conflict but part of the US-Iran confrontation. «Theoretically they can come to an agreement, but going beyond the history of Saudi Arabia«s relations with Yemen,» the analyst says. «For example, they may demand the removal of US military bases from its territory. That is, the demands will be much tougher than simply unblocking Sanaa airport.»