Houthis Declare 'Siege for Siege' Blockade

Yemeni Houthis from the Ansar Allah movement announced the introduction of a sea blockade of the coast of Saudi Arabia. As a reason, they cited what they see as the ongoing blockade of Yemen and restrictions on air travel. Experts are divided in their assessments: some consider it a bilateral conflict, others see it as part of a larger confrontation between the US and Iran.

Kirill Semyonov, of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), described the situation as «a showdown between Houthi Yemen and Saudi Arabia». He clarified that not all of Yemen is united: the internationally recognized government is backed by Riyadh. In addition, there is a split among the Houthis themselves due to inter-clan contradictions.

The conflict dates back to 2015, when Saudi Arabia launched a military operation in Yemen to restore its influence and protect its borders. The campaign dragged on, and only in 2023 did the sides begin negotiations on a truce. However, on July 13, 2026, Saudi forces struck Sanaa airport and blocked it ahead of the arrival of an Iranian plane. The Houthis saw this as a disruption of humanitarian flights and declared the end of the ceasefire regime.

After this, on July 17, a politician from the Houthi office in Oman, Mohammed al-Bukhaithi, welcomed the launch of Royal Jordanian flights to Sanaa but demanded the full unblocking of the airport and the lifting of all restrictions on shipping. Soon, a representative of the armed formations, Yahya Sarea, announced the immediate start of a sea blockade of the Saudi coast. «A siege in response to a siege», Sarea said, recalling the twelve-year blockade of Yemen, accusing Riyadh of suffocating the economy and causing a humanitarian catastrophe. A general mobilization and formation of volunteer units were also announced.

According to Semyonov, the current rhetoric is «not just an emotional outburst, but a fully formed political signal». The Houthis are demonstrating readiness for a symmetric response and a transition of the conflict to a new phase.

Saudi Arabia is vulnerable to the blockade, especially if it drags on. The kingdom«s oil is exported through Red Sea ports, and strikes on the port of Yanbu would be a serious problem. The Saudis bypass the Strait of Hormuz by pumping oil eastward and then delivering it to Red Sea ports. As Semyonov noted, «to stop its transport, it is not necessary to block Bab el-Mandeb». Analyst Igor Yushkov of the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) also believes that attacks on Yanbu could be more significant for the market than blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. «It can be bypassed around the Cape of Good Hope», the expert explained. «Yes, it is a more costly route, but it is an alternative. But what if the Yemeni Houthis shell the port on the Red Sea, where the East-West oil pipeline from the main fields is connected, precisely to bypass the Strait of Hormuz?» Currently, according to Yushkov, this pipeline pumps up to 7 million barrels per day. Disrupting it by strikes on the port or attacks on tankers would lead to oil prices rising to $100–120 per barrel and higher.

At the same time, according to Semyonov, the declaration of the blockade is not necessarily support for Iran, although the Houthis are its allies. They act independently, like Hamas, and do not receive direct orders from Tehran. This is another stage of tension in the Middle East, drawing in both Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The prospects for a settlement are assessed differently. Semyonov believes that the peak of the escalation could be a prelude to a compromise: «In geopolitics, as history shows, the peak of escalation often becomes a prelude to a long-awaited compromise. It is quite possible that this harsh «symmetric» response will ultimately push all sides toward a comprehensive peace agreement. Regional mediators and the UN continue active work, and there is still hope that the current crisis will become not a point of no return, but the last, most difficult step before the signing of a final agreement.» Yushkov is more skeptical. He believes the conflict goes beyond Saudi-Yemeni relations and is part of the US-Iranian confrontation. «Theoretically, they can reach an agreement, but going beyond the history of Saudi Arabia«s relations with Yemen,» the analyst says. «For example, they may demand that it withdraw US military bases from its territory. That is, the demands will be much tougher than just unblocking Sanaa airport.»