Wheat Farming Profitability in Rostov Region Plummets Tenfold
In the Rostov region, the profitability of wheat cultivation has fallen ten times over four years. A number of farms are already growing this crop at cost or even at a loss. This was reported to 161.RU by Yuri Kornyush, advisor to the president of the Rostov Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
«Unfortunately, in this season as well, grains remain low-profit crops. This is primarily due to a significant increase in production costs. Literally everything is getting more expensive — seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, fuel, land rent, logistics, and employee wage costs are growing,» the expert says.
According to his estimate, the cost of wheat cultivation has increased by 10–20% over the season, with total sowing costs up by about 15%. By the summer of 2025, the profitability of wheat production in Russia had fallen to 15%.
Price dynamics and the condition of winter crops will have a significant impact on further profitability indicators. The latter depends directly on weather conditions. The winter of 2025–2026 is bringing abundant precipitation. However, no one can now say for sure that the Rostov region will not face recurrent May frosts and summer drought this season, which have caused the region to harvest low yields for the past two years.
As for the price, Kornyush says, their decline domestically is due to several factors: the expectation of a high gross grain harvest, the strengthening of the ruble, as well as limited demand from processors.
«Such a price situation does not compensate for the increase in costs and reduces the motivation to expand production,» the expert says.
The level of export prices for Russian wheat in the 2025/2026 season is formed under the influence of significant domestic supply and high competition on the world market. High yields have been harvested in all major world exporting countries: Australia, Canada, Argentina.
According to Kornyush, due to high yields, export prices are not high now — $228–230 per ton. By the end of 2025, the FOB cost of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content stabilized in the range of $225–230 per ton.
«This makes it competitive against American ($236) and French ($228) wheat, but the exporters» margin is shrinking,« the expert says.
As a result, he continues, producers have faced the fact that the difference between the high export and low domestic price (the so-called export discount) has significantly decreased or even disappeared.
«Logistical and competitive constraints do not allow for quickly increasing supplies abroad to get rid of surpluses, so pressure on domestic prices is growing,» Kornyush points out.
The increase in global supply and the high cost of logistics this season limit the competitiveness of Russian grain in the markets of Asia and South America. However, at the same time, demand from major importers is recovering: Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt have increased purchases this season.
As reported by 161.RU, according to the federal plan, the Rostov region was supposed to export agricultural products worth $7.1 billion in 2025. According to operational data, the final export volume was only $5.2 billion. According to the Minister of Agriculture of the Rostov region, Anna Kasyanenko, grain sales collapsed in 2025 due to crop failure, the strengthening of the ruble, low carryover stocks from the previous year, increased logistics costs, unstable situation at sea, duties set at the federal level, and the exit of a number of companies from the market.
