Gasoline Prices: Financiers Discuss Shortage and Costs
How will the gasoline crisis develop further, when will the queues disappear, and what will happen to gasoline prices — 74.RU has gathered expert opinions.
Gasoline Prices on the Rise
In July, popular gasoline brands continued to show record price increases across the country. According to the analytical service Chek Index, the median price for the first ten days of July was:
AI-92: 70.5 rubles (about $1) — 20% higher than last year;
AI-95: 77.5 rubles (about $1) — 24% higher than last year;
AI-98: 119.5 rubles (about $1) — 32% higher than in 2025.
The price of diesel fuel also rose — 88 rubles (about $1), which is 11% higher than last year.
The median price is the value that divides the entire price range into two equal halves. One half of all goods cost less than this value, the other half cost more. Thus the median price shows the real «middle» of the market, whereas the average price is heavily distorted by overly expensive or super cheap goods.
«Volatility and price spread are high; the difference in prices between chain and independent gas stations reaches 2.1 times,» noted analysts at Chek Index.
At the same time, fuel demand is changing unevenly. In July, motorists began to fill up more with AI-92 and AI-100 gasoline — compared to 2025, the number of purchases increased by 10% and 37% respectively. At the same time, Chek Index specialists noted a decline in purchases of AI-98 by 18% and AI-95 by 13%.
Of course, diesel fuel is in good demand — a 28% increase over six months.
Cannot Turn a Blind Eye
The Central Bank also noticed the increase in gasoline prices. Fuel contributed to the June rise in the consumer price index (CPI), which increased by 0.87% compared to May and accelerated annual growth to 6%.
«The main “add-on” to the June CPI was the sharp rise in fuel prices. The core CPI showed much more modest growth of 0.48% and 5%,» noted Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexei Zabotkin in the Bank of Russia Telegram channel.
According to the Central Bank Deputy Chairman, costs are affected not only by fuel prices themselves, but also by restrictions on its availability. The Central Bank will closely monitor the price picture during July and beyond — to what extent the situation on the fuel market will affect the inflation expectations of citizens and businesses.
«The Central Bank cannot turn a blind eye to fuel prices and inflation expectations,» admitted Alexei Zabotkin. «But we assume that the measures taken by the government will be able to normalize the situation on the fuel market.»
With a calibrated monetary policy, the Bank of Russia will still be able to ensure a return to the target inflation of 4% in 2027, the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank expressed confidence.
«Production Fell by 25–30%»
The dynamics of gasoline prices and the presence of shortages will largely be determined by the ability of oil companies to restore production volumes, experts indicated.
«According to open data, production has fallen by about 25–30% due to numerous attacks on refineries, meaning the damage is already higher than last year. Locally, of course, various measures are being taken to stabilize the situation: an export ban is in effect, environmental requirements are being lowered, imports from India, China, and former USSR countries are ramping up, and the damping mechanism (a mechanism for subsidizing fuel consumers on the domestic market — Ed.) is being expanded to imports, and so on,» noted Sergey Kaufman, analyst at Finam Financial Group. «However, these are all temporary measures that ease the symptoms of the crisis but do not solve the underlying problem. In other words, full normalization requires restoring refinery volumes. To do this, damaged refineries need to be repaired and new attacks prevented.»
In most cases, refineries can be repaired within a couple of weeks to a couple of months, but it is more important to guarantee no new damage, the expert added. This means the situation could normalize within a couple of months (without new damage). Against this backdrop, achieving an energy truce would be a major success for Russia’s fuel market, but such discussions are not currently taking place.
«If production can be normalized in the coming months, then prerequisites will arise for a reduction in prices relative to current abnormal levels. And then by the end of the year, price growth could return to single-digit territory,» explained Sergey Kaufman. «At the same time, without production recovery, the final price growth for the year could be even higher than in 2025, although the dynamics will be smoothed by growing imports and subsidies on them.»
According to the Finam expert, in the coming weeks, the growth rate (according to Rosstat data) of more than 1.5% per week could persist, because importing fuel from more distant regions (China, India) takes weeks, and without this it is difficult to eliminate local shortages.
«As subsidized imports grow, the weekly data will smooth out, but a sustained decline in prices, in our view, is likely only in the scenario of restoring domestic production. Also note that locally, imports are complicated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is making gasoline more expensive and scarce globally,» concluded Sergey Kaufman.
«May Normalize in August»
The gasoline crisis is not over yet, but its most acute phase could end in the next few weeks, experts said optimistically.
«The main reason is precisely the physical shortage of fuel, not just the rise in oil prices. According to industry sources, gasoline production currently covers about 65% of seasonal demand, and the daily deficit reaches 40,000–45,000 tonnes against consumption of 115,000–120,000 tonnes,» noted Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global. «The government has restricted exports, increased the workload of existing refineries, accelerated their repairs, and ramped up imports. At least 60,000 tonnes of gasoline have already been shipped from India, and supplies are also coming from Belarus.»
In the absence of new major refinery shutdowns, queues should begin to decrease in the second half of July, the expert predicted.
«In most regions, the situation could normalize in August, but in the south of the country and remote regions, individual disruptions may persist until the beginning of autumn due to complex logistics and increased seasonal demand,» explained Vladimir Chernov.
At the same time, the expert believes that a return of prices to spring levels should not be expected.
«Imported fuel is more expensive, and wholesale increases reach the retail sector with a delay. By the end of the year, gasoline could rise another 5–8% relative to the start of July. The average price of AI-92 could approach 74–76 rubles per liter (about $1), AI-95 to 80–83 rubles (about $1),» commented the Freedom Global expert. «With new refinery shutdowns, the increase could be higher, and AI-95 in some regions could exceed 85 rubles (about $1).»
«Will Dissipate by September»
The Rosstat figures will in any case differ from what we all see on the ground, that is, at gas stations, the expert reminded.
«Rosstat calculates wholesale, not retail. Naturally, in retail, the price increase is significantly higher than what Rosstat declares. Especially if you take the south of the country and even more so if you take Crimea. There, fuel already reaches 300–400 rubles per liter (about $3–$4) and it seems to be becoming the norm,» pointed out financial expert Alexei Krichevsky. «Gradually, these data may start to even out. Trading in gasoline and diesel futures, for example, has already been launched on the Moscow Exchange, and there the figures are more or less adequate.»
The problem of gasoline shortage will very likely be resolved in many regions by September, the expert believes. He links this to the upcoming State Duma elections.
«Because of this shortage, there are already problems with harvesting and so on. Moreover, it is unclear why the shortage and queues appeared in the first place if, as they say at the top, we have almost two million tonnes of gasoline in reserves,» reasons Alexei Krichevsky. «Presumably, by September the situation will dissipate in most regions. First of all, of course, in Moscow and St. Petersburg, then other megacities. Why in most? Because there is Crimea and the new territories, where fuel must be delivered one way or another. And the president actually focused on this, instructing to work out routes that are, so to speak, beyond the reach of external factors.»
What this will look like is still a question, the expert added.
One should not expect a return of prices to, say, May levels, Alexei Krichevsky agreed.
«In any case, fuel will be about 10–15% more expensive. How this will affect prices and inflation in the future can only be guessed. Because the shortage and rise in fuel prices mean problems with harvesting, rising food production costs, and so on. This naturally increases logistics costs. So inflation could easily spiral,» concluded the expert.
