Gas Price Outlook in Nizhny Novgorod: Expert Views
Queues at gas stations have become a common sight in cities.
How the gasoline crisis will further develop in the Nizhny Novgorod Region and other regions of Russia, when the queues will disappear, and what will happen to gasoline prices — our colleagues from 74.RU have gathered expert opinions.
Gasoline prices have continued to climb higher with each passing year.
Gasoline Prices Rise
The rapid surge in fuel prices is hurting the wallets of car owners.
In July, popular gasoline brands continued to show record price growth across the country. According to the analytical service Check Index, during the first ten days of July, the median price was:
As long as there is gasoline, drivers are ready to wait.
AI-92: 70.5 rubles ($1 at current rates) — 20% higher than last year;
AI-95: 77.5 rubles ($1 at current rates) — 24% higher than last year;
AI-98: 119.5 rubles ($1 at current rates) — 32% higher than in 2025.
The price of diesel fuel also rose — 88 rubles ($1 at current rates), which is 11% higher than last year.
The median price is the value that divides the entire price range into two equal halves. One half of all goods are cheaper than this value, the other half are more expensive. Thus, the median price shows the real «middle» of the market, while the average price is heavily distorted by extremely expensive or very cheap goods.
«Volatility and price dispersion are high, the difference in prices between chain and independent gas stations reaches 2.1 times,» noted analysts at Check Index.
Meanwhile, fuel demand is changing unevenly. In July, motorists began to refuel more with AI-92 and AI-100 gasoline — compared to 2025, the number of purchases increased by 10% and 37%, respectively. At the same time, Check Index specialists noted a decrease in purchases of AI-98 by 18% and AI-95 by 13%.
Of course, diesel fuel is in good demand — a 28% increase over six months.
Not Entitled to «Turn a Blind Eye»
The Central Bank also noted the increase in gasoline prices. Fuel contributed to the June rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which increased by 0.87% compared to May and accelerated annual growth to 6%.
«The main «extra» in the June CPI was the sharp rise in fuel prices. The core CPI showed a much more modest increase of 0.48% and 5%,» noted Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexei Zabotkin on the Bank of Russia«s Telegram channel.
According to the Central Bank deputy chairman, costs are affected not only by fuel prices themselves, but also by restrictions on its availability. The Central Bank will closely monitor the price picture during July and beyond — to what extent the situation on the fuel market will affect citizens« and businesses» concerns about future inflation.
«The Central Bank is not entitled to turn a blind eye to fuel prices and inflation expectations,» admitted Alexei Zabotkin. «But we proceed from the assumption that the measures taken by the government will be able to ensure normalization of the situation on the fuel market.»
With a well-calibrated monetary policy, the Bank of Russia will still be able to ensure a return to the target inflation of 4% in 2027, the Central Bank deputy chairman expressed confidence.
Production Has Fallen by 25–30%
The dynamics of gasoline prices and the presence of a deficit will largely be determined by the ability of oil companies to restore production volumes, experts pointed out.
«Based on open data, production has fallen by about 25–30% due to numerous attacks on refineries, meaning the damage is already higher than last year. Locally, of course, various measures are being taken to stabilize the situation: an export ban is in effect, environmental requirements are being reduced, imports from India, China, and former Soviet republics are being stepped up, and the damping mechanism (a mechanism for subsidizing fuel consumers on the domestic market. — Editor«s note) is being extended to imports, and so on,» noted Sergei Kaufman, analyst at investment company Finam. «However, these are all temporary measures that alleviate the symptoms of the crisis but do not solve the primary problem. In other words, full normalization requires restoring oil refining volumes. To do this, it is necessary to repair the damaged refineries and prevent new attacks.»
In most cases, refineries can be repaired within a couple of weeks to a couple of months, but it is more important to guarantee no new damage, the expert added. This means the situation can be normalized within up to a couple of months (without new damage). Against this backdrop, achieving an energy truce would be a great success for the Russian fuel market, but such talks are not taking place now.
«If production can be normalized in the coming months, then prerequisites will arise for reducing prices relative to current abnormal levels. And then by the end of the year, price growth could return to single-digit territory,» explained Sergei Kaufman. «At the same time, without restoring production, the final price increase for the year could be even higher than in 2025, although the dynamics will be smoothed by rising imports and subsidies on them.»
According to the Finam expert, in the coming weeks the growth rate (according to Rosstat) of more than 1.5% per week may persist, since importing fuel from more distant regions (China, India) takes weeks, and without this it is difficult to eliminate the local deficit.
«As subsidized imports grow, weekly data will smooth out, but a sustained price decline, in our view, is likely only in the scenario of restoring domestic production. We also note that locally, imports are complicated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is making gasoline more expensive and scarce than usual in the world,» concluded Sergei Kaufman.
Could Normalize in August
The gasoline crisis is not yet over, but its most acute phase could end in the coming weeks, experts said hopefully.
«The main reason is precisely the physical shortage of fuel, not just the rise in oil prices. According to industry sources, gasoline production currently covers about 65% of seasonal demand, and the daily deficit reaches 40,000–45,000 tons with consumption of 115,000–120,000 tons,» noted Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Global. «The government has restricted exports, increased the load on existing refineries, accelerated their repairs, and is ramping up imports. At least 60,000 tons of gasoline have already been shipped from India, and supplies are also coming from Belarus.»
In the absence of new major refinery shutdowns, queues should begin to shrink in the second half of July, the expert predicted.
«In most regions, the situation could normalize in August, but in the south of the country and in remote regions, individual disruptions may persist until the beginning of autumn due to complex logistics and increased seasonal demand,» explained Vladimir Chernov.
At the same time, according to the expert, one should not expect a return of prices to spring levels.
«Imported fuel is more expensive, and wholesale increases reach retail with a delay. By the end of the year, gasoline could become more expensive by another 5–8% relative to the beginning of July. The average price of AI-92 could approach 74–76 rubles per liter ($1 at current rates), AI-95 — 80–83 rubles ($1 at current rates),» commented the Freedom Global expert. «With new refinery shutdowns, the increase could be higher, and AI-95 in some regions could exceed 85 rubles ($1 at current rates).»
Will Dissipate by September
The figures from Rosstat will in any case differ from what we all see on the ground, i.e., at gas stations, the expert reminded.
«Rosstat counts wholesale, not retail. Naturally, in retail, the price increase is significantly higher than what Rosstat declares. Especially if you take the south of the country and even more so if you take Crimea. There, fuel already reaches 300–400 rubles per liter ($3–$4 at current rates) and it seems to be becoming the norm,» pointed out financial expert Alexei Krichevsky. «Gradually, these data may begin to level out. For example, trading in gasoline and diesel futures has already been launched on the Moscow Exchange, and those indicators are more or less adequate.»
The problem of the gasoline deficit will very likely be resolved in many regions by September, the expert believes. He attributes this to the upcoming State Duma elections.
«Because of this deficit, there are already problems with harvesting and so on. Moreover, it is unclear why a deficit and queues formed in the first place if, as they say at the top, we have almost two million tons of gasoline in reserves,» argues Alexei Krichevsky. «Presumably, by September the situation will dissipate in most regions. First of all, of course, in Moscow and St. Petersburg, then other megacities. Why in most? Because there is Crimea, new territories, where fuel must be delivered one way or another. And this is what the president focused on, ordering the development of routes that are not affected by, let«s say, external factors.»
What that will look like is still a question, the expert added.
One should not expect a return of prices to, say, May levels, Alexei Krichevsky agreed.
«In any case, fuel will be about 10–15% more expensive. We can only speculate how this will further affect prices and inflation. Because the deficit and rising fuel prices mean problems with harvesting, rising food production costs, and so on. This naturally increases logistics costs. So inflation could easily go into a spiral,» the expert concluded.
