Wheat profitability in Rostov Oblast drops tenfold
The profitability of wheat cultivation in Rostov Oblast has decreased tenfold over four years. Some farmers are already breaking even or operating at a loss, said Yuri Kornyush, an advisor to the president of the regional Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
According to him, grains remain low-profit in the current season. «This is primarily due to a significant increase in production costs. Literally everything is becoming more expensive — seeds, fertilizers, plant protection products, fuel, land rent, logistics, and employee wage costs are rising,» the expert explained.
The cost of wheat production per season has increased by 10–20%, and overall sowing expenses by about 15%. By summer 2025, the average profitability for this crop in Russia had fallen to 15%.
Further financial results will be affected by price dynamics and the condition of winter crops, which depends on the weather. The winter of 2025–2026 brought abundant precipitation, but the risk of May frosts and summer drought remains, which have led to low harvests in the region for the past two years.
The decline in domestic prices, as Kornyush noted, is caused by expectations of a high gross harvest, the strengthening of the ruble (at current rates), and restrained demand from processing enterprises. «This price situation does not compensate for the increase in costs and reduces the motivation to expand production,» he stated.
Export prices for Russian wheat in the 2025/26 season are being formed in conditions of large domestic supply and tough competition on the global market, where high harvests have also been recorded in Australia, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the expert, the price of a ton of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein on FOB terms stabilized at the end of 2025 at $225–230. «This makes it competitive against American ($236) and French ($228) wheat, but exporters» margins are shrinking,« said Kornyush.
As a result, the difference between export and domestic prices, known as the export discount, has significantly decreased or completely disappeared. «Logistical and competitive constraints do not allow for a quick increase in supplies abroad to get rid of surpluses, so pressure on domestic prices is growing,» he added.
Growing world supply and high logistics costs limit the competitiveness of Russian grain in Asia and South America. At the same time, purchases have increased from Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Egypt.
According to preliminary data, agricultural exports from Rostov Oblast in 2025 amounted to $5.2 billion against a planned indicator of $7.1 billion. The decline in grain sales is attributed to crop failure, the strengthening of the ruble, low carryover stocks, rising logistics costs, instability on sea routes, imposed duties, and the exit of some companies from the market.
