Foreign Car Shortage and Price Rises: 2026 Auto Market Forecast

According to the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers, for the first time in 10 years, Russia«s auto market has shrunk in monetary terms in 2025. If in 2024, residents of the country bought new and used cars worth 14.9 billion rubles (approximately 166 million USD at current rates), in 2025 this figure decreased to 13.8 billion rubles (approximately 153 million USD at current rates). Moreover, only 4.61 billion rubles (approximately 51 million USD at current rates) were spent on new cars.

And what will happen with car sales this year, will residents of Omsk be left without cars? We asked representatives of auto services and federal experts of the car market about this. More details are in the material by Sergey Enqvist.

What is happening on the market now

The incomes of potential car enthusiasts have decreased relative to inflation, while car prices have risen. Hence the market decline, which will only intensify.

«Naturally, people are not buying cars. And cars have become incredibly expensive. But it»s not just the inflationary process; additional taxes have also had an impact. This includes the notorious recycling fee, which was raised, and customs clearance—everything has had an effect,« says automotive expert, sports director of the GAZ Raid Sport team, Vyacheslav Subbotin.

What is happening in the car market—we observe it in all areas of business. Car sales are declining not only due to the economic situation in the country. The recycling fee has also had an impact—the choice has diminished. That is, on one hand, the market is «cutting» supply, on the other—demand.

«The market is shrinking and will definitely continue to shrink. The import of used cars will decrease by at least 50% due to the recycling fee. And Russian manufacturers will not be able to meet demand. Therefore, the market contraction will occur not only in ruble terms but also in quantitative terms. Quantitatively—by approximately 50%, because most cars were imported into the country, not produced here,» reasons the head of the Russian Car Owners Federation, Sergey Kanaev.

Trends on the nationwide market have inevitably affected the car situation in Omsk as well. The head of the Reactor auto service center network, Ilya Nikolkin, stated that the average age of cars has sharply increased.

«As soon as cars of global production stopped being sold, the average age of the vehicle fleet increased from 10 to 16 years. And prices sharply rose. Plus, the recycling fee appeared, which for cars with an engine over two liters reaches 100% of the price. That is, for a car costing three million rubles (approximately 33,000 USD at current rates), you need to pay another three million rubles in recycling fee. Only cars up to 150 hp remain accessible.»

Now, only those companies that have their own assembly in Russia or Belarus will dominate the market. But these cars are subject to many taxes.

«To a large extent, this recycling fee was pushed through by dealers so that cars would be bought from them, not imported into the country. In fact, it»s not a recycling fee, but something unclear. It«s unclear what purposes this money will be directed to. Before the New Year, a Chinese car brand cost conditionally 4.5 million, through parallel import from the Celestial Empire it could be brought for 3.5 million. I myself brought a car for almost 1.5 times cheaper than it cost in the showroom. Now such an opportunity is gone,» added Ilya Nikolkin.

And a shortage of foreign cars has developed in the market itself. Prices for old car models have remained, but they are almost unavailable. New ones, naturally, will cost more.

«Regarding foreign cars, cars at old prices can still be found, but very few remain. New deliveries will already be more expensive. Moreover, for a number of brands, a certain shortage persists, including among Chinese brands. For some models, waiting is required, for others, on the contrary, there is an excess. At the same time, manufacturers try to avoid overproduction and focus on real market demand,» characterizes the sales situation by the operational director of the Bars auto holding, Vladislav Vilchinsky.

Who will retain the market

Most drivers still want to buy good cars, including used Japanese, American, European, not new Chinese cars. A rise in the cost of used «Europeans,» «Americans,» and «Japanese» should be expected.

«Due to the increase in the recycling fee, in principle, car costs are already rising very seriously. But nevertheless, our government decided to act in this way, which will inevitably affect the market both quantitatively and in terms of the vehicle fleet indicators. It will age. It is surprising that now the socio-economic position of people is falling, as is their well-being, while car prices are rising,» explained Sergey Kanaev.

In the future, everything will lead to cars becoming an inaccessible luxury for the majority of the country«s residents again. On one hand, Chinese producers will not fill the deficit that will arise after the introduction of the recycling fee, on the other—the quality still leaves much to be desired.

«The visual qualities, reliability of construction, and resources of Chinese cars—are near the baseboard. China is not capable of filling the market that European, Korean, and Japanese cars occupied. Who will buy a Chinese car that needs repair after 30,000 kilometers? And that serves 150,000 kilometers instead of 500,000?» wonders Vyacheslav Subbotin.

There is another opinion. Let«s recall 2022, many brands left due to sanctions. And China helped fill the hole in the automotive business. So believes the head of the sales department of the Antikor-Service auto service center, Vladimir Saitov. In his opinion, Chinese cars are no worse than the brands that left Russia.

«Chinese cars have 100% replaced the departed ones. The stereotype that they break down and rust en masse has disappeared. The warranty for many is 5 years. They are in no way inferior to »Japanese« or »Korean« cars. For example, the Rav 4 and Geely Monjaro cost the same, but the Geely is head and shoulders better in terms of equipment. Clients are no longer afraid to buy them. There are proven brands like Great Wall, Geely, Chery, no questions about them. And there are very many Chinese cars on the roads. In the service, we see them only for maintenance.»

Many new cars can be bought in installments, which is much more profitable than taking an old «Korean» or «Japanese» car on credit at 20% per annum.

«Don»t expect a Lada for 500,000 anymore«

As with Chinese cars, prices for Russian ones will also rise. First, due to the reduction in supply on the secondary market because of the recycling fee, second, due to the rising cost of imported components.

«Remember, the president once stated that the price of the Lada Vesta should be made 500,000 rubles (approximately 5,600 USD at current rates). Of course, no one will make it 500,000, and less than the 2 million (approximately 22,000 USD at current rates) it costs, I think it»s simply unrealistic to make it, because today imported components make up about 30%. It«s not our car, let»s be honest. Components come through parallel import, which also leaves an imprint on their cost,« asserts Sergey Kanaev.

For now, there is no shortage of Russian cars. Let«s be honest, for domestically produced cars, there is a slowdown in demand due to the increase in VAT and the same recycling fee.

«The first quarter—traditionally difficult months for the automotive business. The market lacks the support measures for importers that were in effect last year, which directly affects purchasing power. In the coming months, we expect seasonal market growth in the segment of domestic and imported cars,» is confident the representative of the Bars auto center, Vladislav Vilchinsky.

Will there be a car shortage and when is the best time to buy a car?

«Our people will not be left without cars. The choice, no matter how you twist it, exists. Last year, 1.8 million new cars and 5–7 million used cars were sold. But nevertheless, the car market is still large, over 50 million cars are registered in the country, even a bit more. So, there is a choice on the secondary market too,» declares auto expert Vyacheslav Subbotin.

New and beautiful passenger cars are in the services. But they should have been bought yesterday. Representatives of auto dealers are sure of this.

The operational director of Bars, Vladislav Vilchinsky, reminded that with car purchases, a simple rule applies: the earlier the decision is made, the more profitable the acquisition.

Manufacturers are gradually raising car prices—by 50,000–100,000 rubles (approximately 550–1,100 USD at current rates) per month. And it was most profitable to buy a car yesterday, is confident the representative of Antikor, Vladimir Saitov: «They won»t get cheaper, they will only become more expensive. It«s better not to postpone the purchase, but don»t expect a shortage either.«

Therefore, Russians will now «drive out» the existing fleet, insists the head of the Reactor auto center network, Ilya Nikolkin. According to him, new cars are unaffordable for many. Some, due to the rising cost of gasoline, will have to switch to public transport or walk.

«Cars will age because new cars are very expensive. VAT has increased, this income tax was introduced. That is, the tax burden on business has significantly increased. This will lead to a reduction in income, and accordingly, people will spend less on cars. And those who would like to buy a new car won»t buy it and will drive an old one. And there«s nothing good in that.»

Earlier, we reported on how road reagents in Omsk affect the condition of cars in the city.