Telegram Block in Russia After WhatsApp? Experts Answer

Muscovites have once again complained about disruptions in WhatsApp«s work, and Roskomnadzor has admitted the possibility of its complete blocking in Russia. According to a source from RBC in the telecom market, since December 22, the messenger»s speed has been reduced by 70–80%, but this is not being done by telecom operators.

MSK1.RU discussed with experts what awaits us next, whether Telegram will be blocked, and where we will communicate at all.

Everything Depends on Durov

Political analyst, head of the Political Expert Group Konstantin Kalachev believes that Telegram«s fate will be determined by the position of its founder Pavel Durov. If the entrepreneur makes contact with Russian authorities, the messenger will be allowed to continue operating.

“I think it depends on Durov, how ready he is to cooperate with the authorities, and in my opinion, he is ready. Durov, I think, is a quite understandable person for our rulers, surely willing to cooperate on any issues. But, on the other hand, Telegram really interferes with the development of MAX,” the interlocutor said.

Simply “killing off” Telegram for the sake of implementing a national messenger is not an easy decision, the political analyst believes. According to him, in that case, citizens loyal to the authorities would suffer, since the same war correspondents run channels on the messenger.

The expert hopes that “common sense will prevail” and Telegram will remain accessible, but he himself is no longer surprised by anything. Kalachev believes that Russians will accept any decision.

“Remember the «frog in boiling water» experiment. You can test people«s patience endlessly, but they get used to everything. The most important thing is not to take everything away at once,” said Kalachev. “Well, MAX, so MAX, we’ll manage somehow… And if we convince Durov to make an option to transfer all Telegram subscribers to MAX, there will be no dissatisfied people at all.”

Two Scenarios for Russians

Cybersecurity consultant at Positive Technologies Alexey Lukatsky, in a conversation with MSK1.RU, predicted two scenarios. According to the first, with an 80% probability, by the elections in September 2026, we can expect “complete monopoly of MAX”:

• blocking of WhatsApp;

• strict restrictions or de facto blocking of Telegram;

• MAX becomes the only channel for “Gosuslugi” (state services), bank notifications, a means of official identification, a platform for electronic voting;

• possible shutdowns of mobile internet while preserving access to MAX.

The probability of the second option, as Lukatsky suggests, is 50%. This is “managed coexistence”:

• Telegram works, but without calls, with degradation of connection quality, with periodic disruptions;

• WhatsApp disappears “as a class”;

• MAX is mandatory for everything official;

• alternatives exist, “but are marginalized and inconvenient.”

Pavel Durov himself believes that Telegram could indeed be blocked in Russia. He stated this in an interview with podcaster Lex Fridman.

“This is quite possible… It would be extremely sad if Russia resumes its attempts to block it,” said Durov.

What the Authorities Say

On December 12, Roskomnadzor stated that it is not applying new restrictions to Telegram, and only calls are blocked in it. In turn, the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Information Policy, Sergei Boyarsky, predicted Telegram would share WhatsApp«s fate if the messenger is not integrated into the Russian legal system.

Meanwhile, his deputy Andrei Svintsov reassured Russians that a block of the popular application is not imminent for now.

“I think that Telegram will not be blocked for now, because the leadership of Telegram company interacts with our law enforcement agencies, with Roskomnadzor. And here, I think that we can still use Telegram quite calmly for some lengthy time,” he said in a conversation with “Ostorozhno Media.”

Towards the end of the year, Roskomnadzor is imposing restrictions more actively. In December, RKN has already blocked the messenger Snapchat, the gaming platform Roblox, and the calling service FaceTime from Apple.