Where to Invest Profitably in 2026: Deposits, Bonds, or Real Estate

After two years of tight monetary policy, the Central Bank has finally begun lowering its key rate. The rate has already dropped from 21% to 16% per annum and, according to economists and financiers, could fall to 12% by the end of 2026, taking bank deposit rates down with it. Over time, the interest will cease to look attractive to citizens with spare money, who will start looking around for more profitable places to invest.

Experts believe this process is unlikely to be massive and agree that 2026 will largely be a transitional year: much will depend not only on economics but also on politics. The focus is on bonds, gold, and ruble instruments, with a preparation for a gradual return of interest in stocks. Details are in the report by Fontanka.

The Key Rate and Geopolitics – Two Key Benchmarks

According to Sergey Rogozin, Head of Investment and Special Products Development at Alfa-Capital Management Company, the market in 2026 will be guided primarily by two factors – the pace of monetary policy easing by the Central Bank and progress on the geopolitical agenda.

«Easing monetary policy doesn»t determine changes in geopolitics, but changes in geopolitics determine the further vector of monetary policy,« the expert emphasizes.

Under the baseline scenario, based on current data and forecasts, the key rate could drop to 12–13% by the end of 2026. This, he says, will support the bond market – primarily long-term federal loan bonds (OFZ) and the high-yield bond (VDO) segment. Cheaper debt refinancing will lower issuers« credit risks and increase the attractiveness of such securities for investors.

At the same time, decisions on the rate will still depend on inflation and inflation expectations. Annual inflation is declining, Rogozin notes, but the expected rise in prices over the next year remains high – in December, the population«s inflation expectations increased by 13.7%. An overheated labor market exerts additional pressure – as it cools, wage growth will slow, which could also help reduce inflation.

Bonds – In Focus, Stocks – On Condition

The most understandable and relatively conservative instrument for private investors in 2026 remains bonds. Rogozin calls long OFZs and diversified portfolios of corporate bonds (sets of bonds from companies across different economic sectors) interesting. For those willing to take on higher risk, high-yield bonds can be considered – but with a mandatory assessment of the issuer«s credit rating, which indicates a company»s ability to meet its obligations. One option is investing through unit funds, where professional managers handle asset selection and rebalancing.

The situation with stocks is more complex. According to the expert, they could become attractive with significant positive progress in geopolitics. Otherwise, increased interest in the stock market is possible only with a consistent decrease in the key rate – to levels where bonds and deposits begin to lose competitiveness.

«The closer we get to the neutral rate, the less attractive bonds will be and the more the focus will shift to stocks,» notes Rogozin.

Currency and Gold

A separate question is whether to bet on currency. The Alfa-Capital expert believes it is more logical for investors with ruble incomes and expenses to remain in ruble instruments. The exception is a scenario of a weakening ruble.

If the exchange rate exceeds 90 rubles per dollar, substitute bonds – issued in place of Eurobonds under sanctions, with their face value and coupons denominated in foreign currency but payments made in rubles – could show good dynamics, he says. With a stronger ruble, preference again remains with ruble assets. As a universal protective instrument, he also names gold purchased on the Moscow Exchange, which simultaneously provides currency exposure. That is, its value is protected from a fall in the ruble exchange rate.

The rally in the gold market that began in 2025, in his estimation, may continue. Geopolitical tensions support demand, and among buyers, besides the largest central banks, a new major player has appeared – the company Tether, which uses gold in its reserves.

Recall that experts predict an average exchange rate in 2026 at around 85 rubles per dollar. Spikes to 90 rubles and beyond are possible, but how sustainable that trend is – is hard to say. Also, in stress scenarios, analysts allow for an extreme strengthening of the ruble (to 65–70 rubles per dollar) or an extreme depreciation (to 105–110 rubles). In the latter case, the Central Bank would respond by raising the key rate.

Real Estate and/or Deposits

Real estate remains a traditionally interesting asset. As Rogozin notes, historically the market, especially in Moscow, has not shown significant declines, although risks remain. A reduction in the key rate will support demand, and residential property prices in the capital could rise by 10–15% in 2026, according to estimates.

«Investing in real estate in 2026 at current rates and prices makes sense, however, the very format of such investments has changed significantly in recent years. If 4–5 years ago a retail investor with a limited budget could buy an apartment at the equity participation agreement (DDU) stage and earn from resale via assignment in 1–1.5 years, today such strategies have become riskier and yield returns at the level of official inflation,» says Sergey Duvanov, Head of Projects at the Financial Markets and Investments Department of the consulting company NF GROUP in St. Petersburg.

According to the expert, the market can still offer solutions to an investor who has from 1 to 10 million free rubles (approx. $10,500–$105,000 at current rates), but in such cases, it«s not about high returns but primarily about diversifying an investment portfolio and reducing risks. With such a budget, collective instruments are relevant for the investor – real estate unit investment funds, as well as shares formalized as a separate unit studio in hotel real estate projects. For example, in hotels where the investor, by buying a share – a hotel room – immediately transfers it to the management company. The investor essentially acquires the right to receive a portion of the rental income from the business.

The net yield in such formats typically amounts to 10–12% per annum. Although funds often promise yields of 15–20% and more, this is an unrealistic picture, Duvanov explains. This is «gross» income before deducting management company fees, property taxes, the investor«s own income tax, and similar expenses. At the same time, units and shares are more liquid compared to apartments and classic premises. An investor can exit a project relatively quickly or, conversely, increase their share and income.

«For comparison: classic residential real estate yields an average of 5–7% per annum from rent. At the same time, it is important to note that since the early 1990s, apartment prices both in Moscow and in the regions have not shown a sustained decline, making this asset more defensive than income-generating,» the expert notes.

Higher returns in residential real estate are possible but associated with significantly larger budgets and risks. For example, the flipping strategy – buying problematic or heavily worn apartments at a discount, followed by renovation and resale. The budget for such projects typically starts from 10 million rubles (approx. $105,000) in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In commercial real estate, the entry threshold for an investor is even higher – from 20 million rubles (approx. $210,000). Cheaper offers are often associated with illiquid properties, encumbrances, or complex legal structures and are not suitable for the mass private investor.

«As a result, for investors not prepared to engage daily in searches, management, and approvals, the range of accessible low-risk instruments is significantly limited. That is why in 2026, collective forms of real estate investment remain one of the few relatively simple, accessible, and understandable options for investing in real estate with adequate returns,» emphasizes Duvanov.

So, for now, bank deposits continue to compete with real estate and money market instruments in terms of yield. Most likely, the best strategy for an active investor will be a combination of these tools. «We expect growth in both deposits and, accordingly, investment products,» said Kirill Tsaryov, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of Sberbank, at the bank«s final conference. – »Diversification hasn«t been canceled.»

Economy and IPOs: What Awaits the Stock Market

The stock market is gaining strategic importance. The state is actively involved in bringing companies to the exchange. Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the development of incentive measures for issuers and support for foreign investors who would like to invest in the Russian market.

Speaking about stocks requires considering the macroeconomic context. According to VTB Management Board member Vitaly Sergeychuk, since the beginning of 2025, industries focused on external demand remain in negative territory: extraction, wholesale trade, and pipeline transport. Meanwhile, construction has plateaued at a high level, and most other «consolidated» industries continue to grow, albeit at a more restrained pace than in 2023–2024.

In extraction, signs of revival have been noticeable since autumn – facilitated by the easing of restrictions under the OPEC+ deal. The construction sector could be helped in the medium term by the implementation of the high-speed railway (HSR Moscow – St. Petersburg) project.

Regarding the IPO market, Sergeychuk emphasizes that placement activity will directly depend on geopolitics and the Central Bank«s policy. With a sustained and – especially – faster-than-market-expected reduction in the key rate in 2026, a noticeable revival of IPOs is possible.

Currently, he says, more than 10 issuers are preparing to go public, awaiting favorable conditions. These include companies from the «new» economy, the knowledge and data economy, as well as representatives of traditional industries. However, deal sizes, with rare exceptions, are unlikely to exceed 3–10 billion rubles (approx. $32–$105 million).

The key limitation remains the depth of investor demand. Sergeychuk calls the participation of institutional investors focused on medium- and long-term investments a necessary condition for the sustainable development of the market and the improvement of placement quality.