Tax Hikes May Normalize Envelope Salaries in Arkhangelsk

The graying of incomes indicates serious challenges for both employees and employers in the region.

Feb 6, 2026

Tax authorities are expected to intensify scrutiny of informal wage payments as businesses face higher costs.
Source:
Mikhail Ognev / Fontanka.ru

Starting in 2026, Russia«s tax system enters a new phase with higher and more differentiated burdens on both labor and business profits. It is already clear that the changes primarily affect the payroll fund and related business obligations.

This is not about a single specific tax, but a combination of factors.

Firstly, the development of the progressive scale for the Personal Income Tax (PIT) continues: high incomes are taxed at higher rates.

Secondly, the fiscal role of insurance contributions is strengthening — they remain the key source for filling the Russian Social Fund. Temporary benefits and reduced tariffs, introduced in previous years as anti-crisis measures, are gradually being phased out or specifically reviewed.

Thirdly, control over payments to self-employed individuals and individual entrepreneurs (IEs) is increasing, as they were often used as a substitute for employment contracts.

For businesses, this means increased costs for legal employment. According to expert estimates, even a slight «graying» of the payroll fund — at the level of 10% — could lead to a multiple increase in the deficit of the Social Fund. That is why on social media, the return to «envelope» salaries is increasingly called one of the key threats to the economy in 2026.

However, the issue is not as straightforward as it may seem at first glance, say experts cited by MSK1.RU.

«Gray» Salaries Are Actually Beneficial to No One

Partner at the law firm «Sonichev, Kazus and Partners» Anton Sonichev points out that informal payments create a chain of risks affecting all participants in economic relations at once.

For the employee, says Sonichev, a «gray» salary means the actual absence of legal protection. The person is deprived of guaranteed wage payment, does not accrue pension rights, loses the right to full sick leave, maternity leave, and other social benefits. In case of a conflict with the employer, proving the actual amount of income becomes practically impossible.

For the employer, saving on taxes and insurance contributions seems attractive only in the short run. Essentially, the company takes a «tax credit» that will almost inevitably have to be repaid.

«After a tax audit, you will have to pay not only all unpaid taxes, but also fines of 20 or 40%, as well as penalties, which on average will amount to about 30% of unpaid taxes. Loss of business reputation is also a significant risk, especially for large organizations,» the lawyer explains.

The state in this structure suffers the most obvious damage — direct budget losses. But the consequences do not end there. The mass spread of «gray» salaries leads to the undermining of the pension system, medical and social insurance systems, and also stimulates the growth of corruption and legal nihilism, explains Sonichev. This means that measures to combat «gray» salaries will proportionally increase as well.

«It»s Still Too Early to Draw Conclusions«

Leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, economist Nikita Maslennikov urges not to rush to conclusions about «going into the shadows» and to carefully monitor business adaptation to new conditions.

«For now, various assumptions can be made, but until the end of the first half-year, speaking of an established trend is, in my opinion, premature,» the expert notes.

According to him, despite the increased tax burden, last year saw a growth in the number of small and medium-sized enterprises — by about 19%. Moreover, the business activity index in December, when it was already clear that tax pressure would increase, confidently remained above 50 points, indicating a revival in small and medium businesses.

«Business already has certain experience interacting with the state and sees that in many aspects, it is being accommodated. After all, simultaneously with tax increases for a number of activities, the list of benefits was expanded — including for social insurance and transition to simplified regimes. By the way, your colleagues in the media often focus exclusively on the tax component, ignoring the compensatory function of these measures,» emphasizes Maslennikov.

The economist believes that the real balance between the increase in fiscal load and support measures will become clear closer to the second quarter. At the same time, control over «envelope» payments, says Maslennikov, by tax authorities will inevitably strengthen. Therefore, no matter how much some businessmen might want to «go into the shadows,» doing so will, firstly, be extremely difficult, and secondly, more costly for themselves.