Russian Currency Scenarios: 100 Rubles per Dollar and Rising Prices
The dollar exchange rate could reach 100 rubles (about $1 at current rates) by the end of 2026. This was stated by Finam analyst Alexander Potavin.
Possible Scenarios
«We believe that the dollar exchange rate, which has already been at the 120 ruble (about $2 at current rates) mark, will definitely return to it again — it»s only a matter of time,« the expert stated.
For 2026, he considers several possible scenarios. In January, the analyst expects the following trading ranges:
US dollar: 78.0 – 80.0 rubles (about $1 – $1 at current rates);
Euro: 91 – 94 rubles (about $1 – $1 at current rates);
Chinese yuan: 10.9 – 11.6 rubles (about $0.15 – $0.16 at current rates).
Base scenario: the average dollar exchange rate for the year — about 85 rubles (about $1.13 at current rates), by the end of December — 92 rubles (about $1.23 at current rates).
Negative scenario: in case of confrontation with the West and strengthened sanctions, the dollar exchange rate could rise by the end of the year to 98–100 rubles (about $1.31 – $1.33 at current rates).
At the same time, the analyst does not consider this option to be the worst-case scenario. The critical factor is precisely the speed of weakening: a sharp rise over six months or a smooth movement over one and a half to two years, writes Prime.
The weakening of the ruble in 2026 will be facilitated by a reduction in the key rate, which could become more active from the summer. Also, the refusal of the Central Bank from «mirroring» operations — a mechanism by which the regulator compensated for the Ministry of Finance«s currency operations to smooth out the impact on the exchange rate — will have its influence. The cessation of these operations from 2026 will reduce the supply of currency on the market.
Impact on the Economy
The analyst assesses the possible weakening of the ruble as ambiguous, it could lead to a number of consequences immediately.
Pros:
Growth in ruble revenue for exporters.
Increase in state budget revenues due to growth in taxes from exports.
Increased competitiveness of goods from local producers due to the rising cost of imports.
Cons:
Rising cost of imported goods, raw materials, and components, which raises the general level of inflation in the country.
Increase in the cost of payments on external currency obligations.
The main negative consequence falls on consumers.
A strong ruble is not an unqualified blessing for the economy in current conditions, noted the director of Investment Company Fontvielle Ruslan Spinka. For filling the Russian budget, a strong national currency is «rather negative». Exporters, especially oil and gas companies, which largely replenish the treasury, already suffer from low raw material prices, and a strong ruble additionally reduces their ruble revenue.
The dollar exchange rate against the ruble on the international Forex market fell below 75 rubles (about $1 at current rates). The last time it was below this mark was on 5 December 2025. The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on 22 January was set at 77.5159 rubles (about $1.03 at current rates).
