Experts predict dollar could reach 80 in February

The Central Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate for January 28 at 76.5519 rubles. However, in February, the American currency may rise to 80. Experts interviewed by 72.RU gave forecasts on what will happen with the ruble.

‘At present, we see the dollar at the levels of 2023 and 2021 and do not observe high demand for purchase. Our basic forecast still remains a gradual weakening of the ruble, however, in the near term, we do not see drivers for the situation to change towards currency growth. We do not expect significant changes in the exchange rate from current values in February,’ says Yekaterina Kanivets, personal broker at Sinara Investment Bank.

In January 2026, the dollar exchange rate updated annual lows, notes Mikhail Zeltser, expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.

‘The pressure factors are clear — high exports, low imports, a jump in inflation and uncertainty with the Central Bank«s rate, the tax period and geopolitical warming. And the global dollar itself is weak. In February, many factors supporting the ruble exchange rate will begin to weaken, and foreign currencies will bounce off the multi-year bottom. There is also technical oversoldness of instruments after a strong fall. Perhaps, extremes are being formed now. In February, we expect the dollar to return above the round 80,’ he said.

In February, the key influence on the ruble exchange rate will continue to be exerted by the same macroeconomic factors as at the beginning of the year, explains Natalia Pyreva, head of the analytical department at Tsifra Broker. She includes: trade balance indicators, operations by exporters and demand for ruble assets, the level of the key rate, operations of the Bank of Russia, the geopolitical background.

‘Regarding events that may influence the exchange rate in February, there can be a wide variety, and they can have diametrically opposite effects on the national currency«s exchange rate. We expect that in February, the ruble exchange rate will be in the range of 76–85 rubles per US dollar, 89–95 rubles per euro, 10.9–11.4 rubles per yuan,’ forecasts Pyreva.

The geopolitical agenda remains an important factor of uncertainty in the ruble exchange rate forecast, notes Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

‘In the baseline scenario — with unchanged geopolitics — we believe that the ruble in February will remain strong and continue to trade in the established ranges of 74–80 per dollar, 10.6–11.5 per yuan, and 89–96 per euro,’ he added.

Earlier, economists gave forecasts on what will happen with the ruble in 2026 and whether to expect the dollar at 100. And also, in general, we talked with experts about their vision of the Russian economy. Read their opinions in this material.