Spring Frost Risk in Rostov Region Multiplies, Hurting Wheat
In Rostov Region, over the past 30 years, the probability of spring frosts has increased manifold, which for several years in a row has been causing serious damage to agriculture. This conclusion was reached in her article by leading researcher at the Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences (YuNTs RAN), Candidate of Geographical Sciences Lyudmila Dashkevich.
According to her research, in the period from 1931 to 1960, the probability of frosts in April and May decreased.
«However, in the modern period (1991–2020) compared to the second half of the 20th century, in April there has been an increase of up to 2.5 times in the risk of temperatures below 0°C (32°F), mainly due to frosts in the first half of the month. But more dangerous are frosts in May: the probability of frosts down to -2°C (28°F) has grown manifold, and practically a twofold increase in the probability of frosts below -2°C (28°F),» writes Dashkevich in her article «Long-term Dynamics of Recurrent Frosts on the Lower Don».
Such frosts pose a serious threat to agriculture. The point is that in general, the climate in the region is changing towards warming. Under these conditions, agricultural crops begin flowering already at the end of winter – beginning of spring, their vegetation period has significantly increased. Therefore, the risk of damage to seedlings from recurrent frosts has intensified.
«Frosts in the region in early April (especially in the north) are not critical for the vegetation of spring and winter crops. However, such temperatures (from -4 to -8°C or 25 to 18°F) in the second half of April already have a negative impact on wheat, which is in the stem elongation phase,» writes Dashkevich.
Such frosts in the south of Rostov Region at the end of April and in May can lead to a reduction in grain yield from 10 to 50% depending on the phase of crop development.
According to the scientist, the main protection against crop reduction due to frosts is breeding work. Namely, the development of varieties of agricultural crops resistant to various weather anomalies: drought, frosts, dry winds, and so on.
As wrote 161.RU, Rostov Region in 2024–2025 significantly reduced grain harvest due to recurrent May frosts, which were followed by summer drought. Last year, the gross grain harvest was the lowest in the last 10 years. In a number of districts of Rostov Region, a state of emergency was introduced. Damage to farmers exceeded 4 billion rubles (approx. $53 million USD at current rates).
