Russians' December spending jumps 10.8% year-on-year

In December 2025, Russians rushed to consume as if there were no tomorrow: they spent 8.4 trillion rubles (approximately $84 billion at current rates), 10.8% more than a year ago. One might attribute it all to inflation, but even after subtracting it, growth remains, and it is significant.

What caused this unprecedented consumer optimism and what consequences it will have in the coming months, Fontanka learned from experts.

New Year Bonuses and VAT Increase

According to data from the analytical service SberIndex, Russians« spending on non-food goods (which include, in particular, household appliances and electronics) in December was 9.3% higher than a year earlier. Even accounting for inflation, growth was 6.2%. Spending on food increased by 9% (in real terms, i.e., accounting for inflation — by 3.2%), on services — by 14.3% (4.9%). The most significant change was shown by the food service industry: citizens spent 20.6% more on eating out than before (8.4% accounting for inflation).

Compared to November, Russians« spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by only 0.5%. In November, which saw sales and »Black Fridays,« citizens spent 7.4 trillion rubles ($74 billion at current rates). Spending on services and food service grew by 0.7%, on non-food goods — by 0.8%, on food — by 0.1%.

In October, slightly less was spent — 7.3 trillion rubles ($73 billion at current rates). But in both this and the next month, citizens« spending in real terms grew — by 2% and 4.3% respectively, whereas in previous months the increase averaged 1.6%.

«In December, people always spend more money. They stock up on food and gifts before the New Year, receive bonuses, 13th salaries, and other additional income, and naturally, they want to spend it all. In 2025, the trend was even more obvious because everyone knew that in this, already begun, year, prices for goods and food would rise again due to the VAT increase. Accordingly, people wanted to stock up as much as possible before the holidays to treat themselves to some goods at previous prices,» commented Mikhail Lachugin, an independent consultant for retail chain suppliers and founder of the Telegram channel Product Media.

«The increase in spending at the turn of the year is a familiar trend. First, people receive some annual bonuses. Then, accordingly, they need to stock up on gifts. Plus, not everyone planned trips to stores during the holidays. Also, people were afraid that prices would rise due to tax increases,» said Dmitry Prokofiev, an economist and author of the Telegram channel Money and Polar Fox.

Spending on Food Service and Inflation

Nominal spending on food service in October and November was also significantly higher than a year ago — by 22% and 24.7% respectively. Data from the SberAnalytics service shows that overall, in the first 11 months of 2025, residents spent 12% more money in cafes, restaurants, and bars than a year earlier. However, this is explained not by an increase in visits but by an increase in the average bill — by the same 12%. The number of visitors over the same period grew by only 2%.

In 80% of cases, Russians chose the most budget-friendly establishments. This is fast food, where prices are low (the average bill is 415 rubles or about $4 at current rates) and stable relative to other categories (over the year, they rose by 8%).

16% of transactions were in cafes and restaurants with an average bill of 1,151 rubles (about $12 at current rates, +24% over the year). The remaining 4% of operations were in bars, where on average people pay 820 rubles (about $8 at current rates) per visit (this amount increased by 11% over the year). Most often, people aged 35–44 visit food service establishments. Among visitors, there are slightly more women (54%), but men have a 22% higher average bill.

Incidentally, 9% of all money that Russians spend on food service comes from St. Petersburg. On average, visitors leave 1,720 rubles (about $17 at current rates) in the city«s cafes and restaurants. This is the highest average bill in the country — after Moscow, of course.

«We have a sufficiently large segment of people in St. Petersburg, Moscow, who for various reasons cannot or do not want to travel abroad, but they have money. They want to spend it on something, so they go to restaurants and spend money there, that is, they increase the frequency of visits to food service establishments,» noted Mikhail Lachugin.

At the same time, there are no signs that people have started going to cafes and restaurants significantly more, the expert says. On one hand, prices for everything are rising; on the other — food service is seriously pressured by retail chains that offer customers ready-made food. For many, this is more convenient and cheaper. Therefore, double-digit growth rates resemble a situational story.

In the expert«s opinion, food service will stagnate in the future. Moreover, even grocery retailers in December of last year did not achieve the sales they expected.

«I know from some chains that they have a 15–20% drop in sales from what they planned to get. They were very upset by this fact... The traffic is completely not what they expected,» Lachugin said.

Movies and Entertainment Instead of Food During Holidays

However, during the New Year January holidays, consumers spent 9.8% more money, but all this growth is explained by inflation. They mainly spent on online purchases and services that can be converted into impressions and vivid memories. People preferred going to the movies, beauty salons, massage, and spa procedures. Citizens turned out to be unexpectedly indifferent to cafes and restaurants during the New Year holidays. This is because for many of them, going to a cafe has become part of everyday consumption, not a holiday category, explain SberIndex analysts.

«We see a similar shift in the pre-New Year week. Consumers shifted the focus of holiday budgets to impressions and emotions during the holidays from gifts and alcohol on New Year»s Eve,« they continue.

For example, the number of purchases in wine stores decreased year-on-year by 12.8%, in monetary terms the reduction was 2%. Spending on health and beauty products decreased by 31.1% in the number of purchases and by 7.9% in money. Similarly with jewelry — citizens made 18% fewer purchases and spent 9.5% less money on ornaments than last year.

Instead, they stocked up on marketplaces: in the last week of December, users made 21% more purchases than in the same week a year earlier. In monetary terms, spending increased by 39%. Overall, in December, people spent 17% more money on marketplaces than the December average. Last year, this excess was fixed at 9%. That is, consumer behavior before the New Year is changing, and they are leaving more and more money on online platforms.

«The main increase in real (i.e., minus inflation) spending occurred before the traditional pre-New Year rush. Consumers rationalized purchases and started buying necessary goods in advance. And the drop in demand for the luxury segment indicates a serious change in consumer priorities. In conditions of economic uncertainty, spending becomes more utilitarian. Therefore, the increase in spending on marketplaces during the holidays is related to connected factors — sales, the convenience of inexpensive online purchases, and the choice of more affordable options for traditional gifts,» commented Dmitry Tortev, a member of the Expert Council of the State Duma Committee on Competition Protection.

At the same time, the expert notes that, according to research data, Russians in 2025 still made most purchases (60%) in offline stores. To successfully compete with marketplaces, traditional retail, including St. Petersburg«s Lenta, is forced to actively work with suppliers to reduce purchase prices amid increased attention from the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) Russia due to high markups on certain food products.

«Thus, the joint work of antimonopoly authorities and traditional retail leads to slowing inflation, which is a strong social irritant. And namely, the level of inflation and the dynamics of real incomes remain key factors that will determine the population»s willingness to spend money in the first quarter of 2026,« says Tortev.

Dmitry Prokofiev also links the population«s desire to shop on marketplaces with a reaction to statements that the activities of digital platforms will gradually be limited — that discounts will not be available there and lending will be regulated. »That is, while there is an opportunity to buy something on a marketplace within the framework of promotions, people did it,« he notes.

What Will Happen in 2026

«New Year spending signals a pause in the impulse of consumer spending,» states the SberIndex study. Usually, after vigorous December spending, the pause in consumer activity lasts one and a half to two months. So far, not all goods have become more expensive, and those that are already sold at higher prices generally do not relate to food. In the opinion of Mikhail Lachugin, over January–February, people will psychologically get used to the new prices.

The trends that are already observed will intensify, the expert believes. Retail chains will continue to remove from their assortment goods that have become too expensive for buyers (for example, imported alcohol, chocolate), demand will be redistributed within categories to different goods, retailers will introduce cheap analogs or products of their own brands into the assortment.

«If we look at the first data from Rosstat [from the beginning of 2026], which are now available, then indeed inflation jumped. Several factors coincided at once: and prices began to incorporate growing taxes, and fruit and vegetable products returned to their usual rates of price growth — and the usual consumer rush. Prices need to be watched to assess how this will affect inflation. The financial regulator, as always, will see this at the end of January — beginning of February. For now, apparently, inflation will be higher than expected,» concluded Dmitry Prokofiev.