Investing in 2026: Where to Put Your Money as Rates Fall

After two years of tight monetary policy, the Central Bank has finally started cutting its key rate. The rate has already dropped from 21% to 16% per annum, and according to economists and financiers, by the end of 2026 it could fall to 12%, along with bank deposit rates. In time, these rates will stop looking attractive to citizens with spare money, who will start looking around for more profitable alternatives.

Experts believe this process is unlikely to be massive and agree that 2026 will largely be a transitional year: much will depend not only on economics but also on politics. The focus is on bonds, gold, and ruble instruments, with preparations for a gradual return of interest in stocks. Details are in the material from Fontanka.

Rate and Geopolitics – Two Key Benchmarks

According to Sergey Rogozin, Head of Investment and Special Products Development at Alfa-Capital Management Company (Alfa-Capital), the market in 2026 will primarily be guided by two factors – the pace of monetary policy easing by the Central Bank and progress on the geopolitical agenda.

«Monetary policy easing does not determine changes in geopolitics, but changes in geopolitics determine the further vector of monetary policy,» the expert emphasizes.

In the baseline scenario, based on current data and forecasts, the key rate could drop to 12–13% by the end of 2026. This, he says, will support the bond market – primarily long-term federal loan bonds (OFZ) and the segment of high-yield bonds (HYB). Cheaper debt refinancing will reduce credit risks for issuers and increase the attractiveness of such securities for investors.

At the same time, rate decisions will still depend on inflation and inflation expectations. Annual inflation, Rogozin notes, is declining, but the price growth expected by the population over a one-year horizon remains high – in December, citizens« inflation expectations grew by 13.7%. Additional pressure comes from the overheated labor market – as it cools, wage growth will slow, which could also contribute to lowering inflation.

Bonds in Focus, Stocks – Conditional

The most understandable and relatively conservative instrument for private investors in 2026 remains bonds. Rogozin calls long-term OFZ and diversified portfolios of corporate bonds (sets of bonds from companies across different economic sectors) interesting. Those ready to accept higher risk can consider high-yield bonds – but with mandatory assessment of the issuer«s credit rating, indicating the company»s ability to repay its obligations. One option is investing through unit investment funds, where professional managers handle asset selection and rebalancing.

The situation with stocks is more complex. According to the expert, they could become attractive with substantial positive progress in geopolitics. Otherwise, a growth in interest in the stock market is possible only as the key rate consistently declines – to levels where bonds and deposits begin to lose competitiveness.

«The closer we get to a neutral rate, the less attractive bonds will be and the more the focus of attention will shift to stocks,» notes Rogozin.

Currency and Gold

A separate question is whether to bet on currency. The expert from Alfa-Capital believes that for investors with ruble incomes and expenses, it is more logical to remain in ruble instruments. The exception is a scenario of ruble weakening.

If the exchange rate exceeds 90 rubles per dollar, substitution bonds – issued instead of Eurobonds under sanctions, with their face value and coupons denominated in foreign currency but payments made in rubles – could show good dynamics, he says. With a stronger ruble, preference again remains with ruble assets. As a universal protective instrument, he also names gold purchased on the Moscow Exchange, which simultaneously provides currency exposure. That is, its value is protected from a decline in the ruble«s exchange rate.

The rally in the gold market that began in 2025, in his assessment, could continue. Geopolitical tension supports demand, and among buyers, alongside the largest central banks, a new major player has appeared – the company Tether, which uses gold in its reserves.

Recall that experts forecast an average exchange rate in 2026 at the level of 85 rubles per dollar. Spikes to 90 rubles and beyond that mark are possible, but it is difficult to say how sustainable such dynamics would be. Also, in stress scenarios, analysts allow for extreme ruble strengthening (to 65–70 rubles per dollar) or extreme depreciation (to 105–110 rubles). In the latter case, the Central Bank would react by raising the key rate.

Real Estate and/or Deposits

Real estate remains a traditionally interesting asset. As Rogozin notes, historically the market, especially in Moscow, has not shown noticeable declines, although risks remain. A decline in the key rate will support demand, and prices for residential real estate in the capital could, according to estimates, grow by 10–15% in 2026.

«Investing in real estate in 2026 at current rates and prices makes sense, however, the very format of such investments has changed significantly in recent years. If 4–5 years ago a retail investor with a limited budget could buy an apartment at the stage of an equity participation agreement (DDU) and earn from resale via assignment in 1–1.5 years, today such strategies have become riskier and bring returns at the level of official inflation,» says Sergey Duvanov, Head of Projects in the Financial Markets and Investment Department of the consulting company NF GROUP in St. Petersburg.

According to the expert, the market can still offer solutions to an investor who has from 1 to 10 million rubles ($11,100–111,000 at current rates) spare, but in such cases it is not about high returns, but primarily about diversifying the investment portfolio and reducing risks. With such a budget, collective instruments are relevant for the investor – real estate unit investment funds, as well as shares formalized as a separate unit-studio in hotel real estate projects. For example, in hotels where the investor, by buying a share – a hotel room – immediately transfers it to the management of a management company. The investor essentially acquires the right to receive a portion of the rental income from the business.

Net returns in such formats typically amount to 10–12% per annum. Although funds often promise returns of 15–20% or more, this is an unrealistic picture, explains Duvanov. This is «gross» income before deducting management company services, property taxes, the investor«s own income tax, and similar expenses. At the same time, shares and units are more liquid compared to apartments and classic premises. An investor can relatively quickly exit a project or, conversely, increase their share and income.

«For comparison: classic residential real estate brings an average of 5–7% per annum from rent. It is important to note that since the early 1990s, the cost of apartments both in Moscow and in the regions has not shown a sustained decline, which makes this asset more defensive than income-generating,» notes the expert.

Higher returns in residential real estate are possible but are associated with significantly larger budgets and risks. For example, the flipping strategy – buying problematic or heavily worn-out apartments at a discount, followed by renovation and resale. The budget for such projects typically starts from 10 million rubles ($111,000 at current rates) in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In commercial real estate, the entry threshold for an investor is even higher – from 20 million rubles ($222,000 at current rates). Cheaper offers are often associated with illiquid objects, encumbrances, or complex legal structures and are not suitable for the average private investor.

«As a result, for investors not ready to engage in daily searches, management, and approvals, the range of accessible low-risk instruments is significantly limited. That is why in 2026, collective forms of real estate investment remain one of the few relatively simple, accessible, and understandable options for investing in real estate with adequate returns,» emphasizes Duvanov.

So for now, bank deposits in terms of returns continue to compete with real estate and money market instruments. Most likely, the best strategy for an active investor will be a combination of these tools. «We expect growth in both deposits and, accordingly, investment products,» said Kirill Tsaryov, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of Sberbank, at the bank«s final conference. »Diversification has not been canceled.«

Economy and IPO: What Awaits the Stock Market

The stock market is gaining strategic importance. The state is actively joining the effort to bring companies to the exchange. Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the development of incentive measures for issuers and support for foreign investors who would like to invest in the Russian market.

Discussing stocks requires consideration of the macroeconomic context. According to Vitaly Sergeychuk, a member of the Management Board of VTB Bank, since the beginning of 2025, industries focused on external demand have remained in negative territory: extraction, wholesale trade, and pipeline transport. At the same time, construction has plateaued at a high level, and most other «broad» industries continue to grow, albeit at a more restrained pace than in 2023–2024.

In the extraction sector, signs of revival have been noticeable since autumn – facilitated by the easing of restrictions within the OPEC+ deal. In the medium term, the construction sector could be helped by the implementation of the high-speed railway (HSR Moscow–St. Petersburg) project.

Regarding the IPO market, Sergeychuk emphasizes that placement activity will directly depend on geopolitics and the Central Bank«s policy. With a steady and – especially – faster-than-expected decline in the key rate in 2026, a noticeable revival of IPOs is possible.

Currently, he says, more than 10 issuers are preparing to go public, awaiting favorable conditions. This includes both companies of the «new» economy, the knowledge and data economy, and representatives of traditional industries. At the same time, deal sizes, with rare exceptions, are unlikely to exceed 3–10 billion rubles ($33.3–111.1 million at current rates).

A key limitation remains the depth of investor demand. Sergeychuk calls the participation of institutional investors focused on medium- and long-term investments a necessary condition for the sustainable development of the market and improvement in the quality of placements.