Gold Sets New Records: Is Now the Time to Buy?

In early 2026, the exchange price of gold set a new historical record, exceeding $5,000 per troy ounce (31.1 grams). Since January, the precious metal has appreciated by more than 17%, and leading experts expect it to rise to $5,400 per ounce by the end of the year.

The main driver of the rise in gold prices has been the actions of central banks, which are reducing dollar reserves and actively purchasing the precious metal. By the end of 2024, the volume of gold in central bank reserves reached 36.2 thousand tons, accounting for 18.3% of all official reserves compared to 15% a year earlier. Russia maintained fifth place in the world in gold reserves, and the metal«s appreciation has practically compensated for its losses from the freezing of assets in the EU in 2022. Since the time when an ounce cost $1,800, the price has increased 2.8 times. Major private investors are also increasing purchases. For example, the issuer of the stablecoin USDT, Tether, in late 2025 was purchasing 26-27 tons of gold quarterly to back its tokens. Additional demand is created by retail investors, driven by speculative sentiment and the fear of missing out (FOMO effect).

Some analysts see the rapid price rise as a harbinger of a global debt crisis. Yaroslav Kabakov, strategy director at Finam Investment Company (Finam), noted in his Telegram channel that gold«s 50% appreciation since August 2025 is an alarming signal. In his opinion, investors are seeking protection in gold from a possible system collapse, when governments will be unable to service huge debts without inflation or currency devaluation. «The key example is Japan. For decades, it served as proof that government debt could grow almost indefinitely without immediate consequences. Today, this thesis is beginning to crumble. The volatility of the Japanese debt market has become a reminder: debt sustainability is a matter of trust, not arithmetic,» writes Kabakov. Even high rates in the U.S. have not stopped gold, as the market does not believe they will protect against inflation. In 2026, the dollar has significantly weakened, confirming the devaluation scenario. However, interviewed experts believe that the main contributions to the growth come from central banks, geopolitical tensions, and physical supply shortages.

Experts expect the rally to continue but warn of a high likelihood of correction. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026. Natalya Milchakova, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, considers a level of $5,500–$5,600 achievable. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the book «Rich Dad Poor Dad,» who previously predicted a rise to $5,000, now forecasts an appreciation to $27,000 per ounce, without specifying a timeframe. Alina Poptsova, an analyst at Alfa-Capital Management Company, notes that quotations could approach $6,000, but in the base scenario, by the end of the year, they will return to $4,400. «At the moment, the asset looks overbought. For an unqualified investor, buying at current peaks is associated with the risk of encountering a technical correction — the expected decline could be 5-10%. The optimal strategy is to wait for a price pullback,» warns Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Tsifra Broker.

Gold is considered a tool for portfolio diversification. There are several ways to invest:

• Purchasing physical metal in bars or coins through banks.
• Opening an impersonal metal account (IMA) at a bank.
• Acquiring exchange-traded instruments: futures, ETFs, or shares of gold mining companies.

Analyst Nikolai Dudchenko of FG Finam considers investments in non-physical gold to be most optimal, as storing bars incurs additional costs for safekeeping or insurance. However, IMAs are not insured, so it is important to choose a reliable bank. Moreover, banks set spreads between the purchase and sale prices, which reduces final income. For example, on January 27, 2025, a 1-gram bar at Sberbank could be purchased for 10,033 rubles (approximately $110 at current rates). A year later, the purchase price rose to 13,708 rubles, but it could only be sold for 11,693 rubles. Thus, the real annual return was 17%, not 37%.

Silver, platinum, and palladium have also updated historical highs. Silver has appreciated by 65% since the beginning of 2026, reaching $117 per ounce. Platinum and palladium cost $2,925 and $2,180 respectively. Unlike gold, these metals are highly dependent on industrial demand. «Silver reached $116-117 per ounce due to colossal demand in solar energy, electric vehicle production, and AI. Platinum is appreciating against the backdrop of structural supply shortages and demand from data centers,» explains Dmitry Vishnevsky. Experts advise unqualified investors to consider other precious metals only for long-term diversification and during correction periods, as their prices are more volatile.